Wednesday, May 18 2022
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Eastern Conference rivals square off on Monday at TD Garden. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat in a showcase matchup. Boston is 26-25 overall and 16-10 at home. Miami is 32-18 overall and 14-12 in road games this season. Jimmy Butler (ankle) is questionable for the Heat, with Kyle Lowry (personal), Omer Yurtseven (protocols) and Markieff Morris (reconditioning) ruled out. Romeo Langford (heel) is listed as questionable for the Celtics.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Boston is listed as a 2.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 209.5 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 62-32 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,500. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -2.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over-under: 209.5 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -145, Heat +125
  • MIA: The Heat are 15-11 against the spread in road games
  • BOS: The Celtics are 11-141 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has notable strengths on both sides of the floor, ranking in the top six of the NBA in offensive and defensive efficiency. The Heat are scoring more than 1.12 points per possession this season, posting the fourth-best shooting efficiency in the league. Miami leads the NBA in 2-point shooting, making 37.7 percent of attempts, with the Heat also ranking in the top three in free-throw accuracy (81.1 percent) and assist rate (65.5 percent). Miami makes waves on the offensive glass, securing more than 29 percent of missed shots, and the Heat average 14.1 second-chance points per game. 

On defense, the Heat lead the league in points in the paint allowed, giving up only 39.7 points per game in the lane. Miami is No. 3 in turnover creation, forcing 15.4 giveaways per game, and the Heat are in the top eight of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (44.3 percent) and defensive rebound rate (73.7 percent). Opponents average only 23.3 assists and 12.6 second-chance points per game against the Heat, and Boston ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive rating, field-goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston is very good on the defensive end of the floor, and that is reflected in the numbers. The Celtics are No. 4 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Boston leads the league in assists allowed, giving up only 21.7 per game, and the Celtics are in the top three of the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (43.7 percent), points in the paint allowed (42.0 per game) and blocked shots (5.8 per game). 

Boston is above-average in preventing free-throw attempts (20.6 per game), and opponents are shooting only 34.2 percent from 3-point range against the Celtics. Boston is also good on the glass, allowing opponents to produce only 12.4 second-chance points per game, and Miami has ball security issues on offense. The Heat are No. 27 in the NBA in turnovers, allowing the Celtics to key on contesting shots and potentially create transition opportunities.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 214 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

Source: CBSSports.com

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