Monday, October 2 2023

The Miami Heat aim to avoid infamy on Monday evening. After taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the 2023 Eastern Conference finals, the Heat have lost three straight games to the Boston Celtics. That sets up a win-or-go-home Game 7 matchup on Memorial Day, with TD Garden hosting the affair in Boston. Gabe Vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Heat, with Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) listed as questionable for the Celtics after missing Game 6.

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Boston. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Celtics as 7.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 203 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before you make any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:

  • Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -7.5
  • Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 203 points
  • Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -320, Heat +250
  • MIA: The Heat are 21-27-1 against the spread in road games
  • BOS: The Celtics are 29-22 against the spread in home games
  • Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami can enter Game 7 with confidence behind Jimmy Butler. Though he had a dreadful shooting night in Game 6, Butler scored 10 points in the final two minutes, including three free throws that nearly gave Miami the close-fought win. Butler is averaging 28.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs and, over the last two playoff runs overall, he is generating 27.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. Butler is the key to an offense that is scoring more than 1.16 points per possession and shooting 38.5% from 3-point range in the playoffs. 

Miami is also receiving stellar contributions from Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson to supplement the offense, and the Heat shot 14-for-30 from 3-point range with only five turnovers in Game 6. Miami also found success at TD Garden earlier in the series, winning two of the first three games and scoring well over 1.18 points per possession in Boston. See which team to pick here.

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston has been the better team on paper over the balance of the 2022-23 season, and the Celtics recaptured their stellar baseline of performance in the last three games. The Celtics out-scored the Heat by 10.5 points per 100 possessions across three straight wins and, in addition to outstanding defensive resistance, Boston’s offense was dominant. The Celtics scored 120.9 points per 100 possessions in the three wins, producing a 60.6% true shooting mark and 23.7 free throw attempts per game. 

Boston took care of the ball beautifully, committing a turnover on fewer than 12% of possessions, and the Celtics also improved their overall physicality with a 29.1% offensive rebound rate and 16.0 second-chance points per game. Boston’s high-powered offense is averaging more than 1.17 points per possession during the entire postseason, and no team has a better true shooting percentage (59.9%) than Boston during the 2023 NBA playoffs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.



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