The 2023 NBA Finals continue in prime time on Sunday at Ball Arena. The Denver Nuggets take on the Miami Heat in Game 2 after Denver opened with a 104-93 victory on Thursday. The Nuggets host the follow-up, with Denver maintaining a perfect record at home in the 2023 NBA playoffs. Miami looks to even the series after potentially acclimating to the mile-high climate in Denver.
Tipoff is at 8 p.m. ET in Denver. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as the 8.5-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 214.5 in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds. Before locking in any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA Finals predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -8.5
- Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 214.5 points
- Heat vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -420, Heat +320
- MIA: The Heat are 22-28-1 against the spread in road games
- DEN: The Nuggets are 31-18-1 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Heat can cover
Miami faced a difficult situation in Game 1, traveling to altitude with a significant rest disadvantage. That will be neutralized after a multi-day break without travel before Game 2, and the Heat held the Nuggets to 8-of-27 shooting from 3-point range with an 82.9% defensive rebound rate in the series opener. Miami also held Denver to fewer than 1.12 points per possession in the game, and the Heat are excelling on defense in the playoffs, yielding only 111.5 points per 100 possessions to opponents.
On offense, the Heat committed only eight turnovers in Game 1, leading to an edge in the overall possession battle, and Miami found its footing behind Bam Adebayo on offense. He generated 26 points and 13 rebounds on Thursday, and Miami also has the established brilliance of Jimmy Butler to lean on in Game 2. The Heat have shot 38.7% from 3-point range in the playoffs and, with the potential for positive regression from beyond the arc, Miami is in a strong position. See which team to pick here.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Denver overcame an uncharacteristically poor 3-point shooting effort in Game 1 and was still able to generate efficient offense. The Nuggets shot 51% from the field and 62% from 2-point range, producing 29 assists and only giving the ball away on 10 occasions. That led Denver to its 43rd home win of the season, with the Nuggets bringing an unbeaten (9-0) record at Ball Arena during the postseason. Beyond Game 1, Denver has been the best offensive team in the 2023 NBA playoffs, scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets lead the postseason with a 59.5% true shooting mark that includes 49.1% from the field, 38.2% from 3-point range, and 81.4% from the free throw line.
Denver also leads the league with a 2.30 assist-to-turnover ratio and only 11.3 turnovers per contest in the playoffs. The Nuggets round out their offensive profile with 51.1 points in the paint per game (No. 1 in NBA), 16.1 fast break points per game, and a 29.5% offensive rebound rate. With Nikola Jokic averaging a triple-double in the playoffs and dominating all comers, Denver is almost impossible to contain on offense. See which team to pick here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.