Friday, October 7 2022

When you have a $241 million payroll, you should never miss the playoffs.

Apparently, oddsmakers agree with that sentiment. The New York Yankees, who have the third-highest payroll in Major League Baseball, have -400 odds to make the playoffs at BetMGM, an 80% implied chance of making the postseason. The Yankees are +300 to miss the playoffs.

The Yankees are among the leaders in every betting category. Their win total is a robust 91.5. They are tied for the fifth-lowest odds to win a World Series at +1100. It’s the Yankees. They’re going to be good.

Then again, if the Yankees aren’t as good as their payroll or superstar talent says they should be, there’s a nice profit to be made this season.

Will Yankees miss the playoffs?

Let’s focus on the +300 to miss the playoffs, because New York won’t just walk into the postseason.

The Yankees barely made it last season. The Yankees didn’t clinch a wild-card spot until Aaron Judge‘s walk-off hit in the regular-season finale. They barely held off the Toronto Blue Jays. Then the Yankees lost the wild-card game to the Boston Red Sox.

The biggest potential problem for the Yankees is they play in a stacked division. The Baltimore Orioles stink, but the other AL East teams are all capable of making the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays are always good, the Blue Jays are loaded and ready to make a run at the postseason and the Red Sox rebounded in a big way from a down 2020. That’s a lot of games against really good competition. It’s not crazy to think New York could finish fourth in its division.

If the Yankees don’t win the AL East they also have to worry about a team from another division with a much easier schedule having a great season out of nowhere and stealing a wild-card spot, like the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels or Seattle Mariners.

Basically, there’s enough working against the Yankees to believe they’re not a playoff lock. That means the +300 odds aren’t that bad.

Will Aaron Judge and the Yankees make the playoffs this season? (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)Will Aaron Judge and the Yankees make the playoffs this season? (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Will Aaron Judge and the Yankees make the playoffs this season? (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Yankees have some roster questions

There’s also a possibility the Yankees’ roster is a little overrated.

Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are all great hitters, but they also all have incredibly long injury histories. The bottom half of the order is good but not great if Joey Gallo is striking out too much or Gleyber Torres isn’t feasting on the Orioles. The rotation is Gerrit Cole and more than a few questions.

The Yankees aren’t bad. Most teams would kill for their lineup or pitching staff. But for a team that is -400 to make the playoffs, there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll fall just short. They didn’t have the type of offseason that you’d expect. They didn’t go land a Freddie Freeman or Max Scherzer in free agency. It was fairly quiet. And remember, their margin of error to make last year’s postseason was very thin.

If nothing else, getting 3-to-1 odds on the Yankees to miss the playoffs seems like the way to go.

Source: Yahoo Sports

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