NBA Western Conference playoff picture: Warriors maintain hold on No. 6 seed; Wolves knocking on the door

The Golden State Warriors scored maybe their biggest regular-season win since the Mark Jackson era by defeating the Dallas Mavericks — on the road! — on Wednesday, maintaining their hold on the West’s No. 6 seed and sealing the tiebreaker over Dallas. 

Golden State holds a one-loss lead over the No. 7 Timberwolves, who beat Atlanta in Karl-Anthony Towns’ return. The Warriors and Wolves still have one matchup left. 

Also, the Lakers jumped back into the play-in picture with a win over Phoenix, which now holds just a one-loss lead over the No. 5 Clippers with one head-to-head matchup remaining. 

Below is a comprehensive snapshot of where things stand in the Western Conference playoff and play-in races entering play on Thursday. This post will update daily throughout the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds are clinched. 

Reminder on how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7-8 game gets the No. 7 seed, while the loser plays the winner of the 9-10 game for the  No. 8 seed. 

READ: Eastern Conference playoff picture

NOTE: Our SportsLine model, developed by predictive data engineer Stephen Oh, simulates the entire season 10,000 times to produce the most unbiased and precise projections imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

• Projected seed: 1
• Current first-round matchup: TBD
• Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Nuggets have clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Nuggets lead season series 2-0 with two to play

• Projected seed: 2
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Timberwolves-Thunder play-in winner
• Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Nuggets have clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference record
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Grizzlies own via division leader

• Projected seed: 3
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Warriors
• Tiebreaker vs. Denver: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Kings currently own via conference win percentage 
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play

4. Phoenix Suns (38-34)

• Projected seed: 4
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Clippers
• Tiebreaker vs. Memphis: Grizzlies own via division leader
• Tiebreaker vs. Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Suns have clinched 
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Suns currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play

5. Los Angeles Clippers (38-35)

• Projected seed: 5
• Current first-round matchup: at Suns
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Clippers lead via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks currently own via conference record
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 1-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Clippers clinched

6. Golden State Warriors (38-36)

• Projected seed: 6
• Current first-round matchup: at Kings
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns have clinched 
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Warriors clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers lead via division win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Thunder: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Warriors clinched

Play-In Tournament

7. Minnesota Timberwolves (36-37)

• Projected seed: 9
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Thunder (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Wolves clinched 
• Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Wolves clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Wolves currently own via division record
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Wolves clinched

• Projected seed: 10
• Current first-round matchup: at Timberwolves (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Warriors: Golden State leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: OKC clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Portland: OKC clinched

9. Dallas Mavericks (36-37)

• Projected seed: 7
• Current first-round matchup: vs. Lakers (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Oklahoma City: OKC clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Phoenix: Suns owns via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Warriors clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched 
• Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Dallas currently owns via conference record
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Mavericks clinched

11. Los Angeles Lakers (36-37)

• Projected seed: 8
• Current first-round matchup: at Mavericks (play-in)
• Tiebreaker vs. Clippers: Clippers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Warriors: Lakers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves: Wolves clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Lakers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage

Outside Looking In

11. Utah Jazz (35-37)

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Jazz clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Jazz lead 2-0 with two to play
• Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play

12. New Orleans Pelicans (35-37)

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Golden State: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Timberwolves:  Tied 1-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Jazz clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Lakers clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Pelicans clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. Portland: Pelicans clinched

• Projected seed: Lottery
• Tiebreaker vs. Utah: Blazers lead 2-1 with one to play
• Tiebreaker vs. Lakers: Blazers currently own via conference win percentage
• Tiebreaker vs. New Orleans: Pelicans clinched
• Tiebreaker vs. OKC: Thunder clinched