Sunday, October 1 2023

Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and the Phoenix Suns face a must-win scenario on Thursday evening. The Suns trail Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets by a 3-2 margin in a second round series after a 16-point road loss on Tuesday. Phoenix hosts Game 6 of this 2023 NBA playoff series at Footprint Center, with Denver looking to clinch a trip to the Western Conference Finals with a win. Deandre Ayton (rib) is listed as questionable for the Suns, with Chris Paul (groin) ruled out.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Suns as 2-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 224.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Suns odds. Before locking in any Suns vs. Nuggets picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Suns and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Suns vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Suns spread: Suns -2
  • Nuggets vs. Suns over/under: 224.5 points 
  • Nuggets vs. Suns money line: Suns -125, Nuggets +105
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 20-25 against the spread in road games 
  • PHX: The Suns are 25-20-1 against the spread in home games 
  • Nuggets vs. Suns picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets

Why the Nuggets can cover

The Nuggets are dominant on offense, led by Jokic. Denver led the NBA in field goal percentage and posted a top-five offensive rating during the regular season, only to actually improve its overall efficiency in the playoffs. The Nuggets are scoring 117.8 points per 100 possessions in the postseason, No. 1 in the Western Conference, and Denver is shooting 48.5% from the field and 38.0% on 3-pointers in those games. Denver also has a stellar 31.4% offensive rebound rate in playoff action, averaging 25.3 assists per game and leading the playoffs with 52.8 points in the paint per contest.

The Nuggets also have the best turnover rate (11.8%) of any playoff team, and Jokic continues to perform at an elite level. After finishing as the MVP runner-up during the regular season, Jokic is averaging 30.6 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game while shooting 53.4% from the field and 48.7% from 3-point range in the playoffs. He has been even better against Phoenix, generating 35.0 points, 13.8 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per contest in the first five games of the series. See which team to pick here.

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix has depth concerns, but the Suns are led by two unquestioned superstars in Booker and Durant. The pairing leads Phoenix to a sparkling 117.6 offensive rating in playoff action, and the Suns are leading the 2023 NBA playoffs with 49.8% shooting from the field and 18.7 fast break points per game. Booker has arguably been the best player in the NBA postseason, leading the league with 35.9 points per contest. He is shooting 60.1% from the field and 51.7% from 3-point range in playoff action, and is also getting teammates involved with 7.1 assists per game. That comes after a regular season in which he averaged 27.8 points per game on 60.1% true shooting, and Booker is joined in his elite production by Durant. 

Durant, a former MVP and future Hall of Fame selection, is averaging 29.6 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in the playoffs after arriving in Phoenix midseason. Durant has been even more productive against Denver, averaging 30.8 points and 10.6 rebounds per game while also providing the Suns with high-end defensive activity. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with four players projected to score more than 21 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Suns? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Suns spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that is 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out. 



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