Tuesday, September 27 2022

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the current betting favorite to hit the most home runs in 2022, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t serious value behind him. The field is full of sluggers who, if they reach their powerful ceilings, could pay off in a big way.

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Andy Behrens, Dalton Del Don and Scott Pianowski reveal their top bets for 2022’s home run king — and they’ll all be playing for the city of Brotherly Love.

All home run odds courtesy of BetMGM

Andy Behrens: Kyle Schwarber cleared the fence 32 times in just 113 games last season while finishing 90th percentile or better in every key Statcast power category: Average exit velocity, barrel rate, max exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. When he hits ’em, they are fully hit:

It’s not at all difficult to imagine Schwarber delivering 40-plus bombs over a healthy season in Philadelphia. But if you’re trying to find his name within the HR leader odds, you’re gonna have to scroll. I’m happy to invest at +2500; his absolute floor is 30 homers, assuming he plays at least 135 games.

Rhys Hoskins provides quality long-shot odds

Dalton Del Don: I’m also on board with the Schwarber pick, but let’s stay in Philadelphia and go with Rhys Hoskins, whose odds look quite long at 66/1 for someone The BAT X projects to finish top-10 in homers this season despite missing nearly 30 games. Put differently, he’s projected to be among the league leaders in home runs per at-bat, so he could be in serious contention in a healthy year (and the DH is now available in the NL).

Philadelphia Phillies' Rhys Hoskins is one of the top home-run leader betsPhiladelphia Phillies' Rhys Hoskins is one of the top home-run leader bets

Rhys Hoskins is one of the easier bets to be among the home run leaders of 2022. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

Hoskins hits the ball hard, posting an expected slugging percentage in the top seven percent of the league last season, and he also benefits from hitting in a favorable home park that boosts homers for righties. As a 66/1 long shot, Hoskins looks like an intriguing bet.

Bryce Harper should rake with new additions around him

Scott Pianowski: Normally I’d ignore a big name like Bryce Harper, expecting the line to be virtually unbettable. But Harper sits at a reasonable 20-1, and I figure he’ll see more strikes this year with Nick Castellanos and Hoskins slotted behind him. If you prefer longer shots, I have interest in Jorge Soler (30-1; was a monster in the World Series), Adam Duvall (40-1; quietly led the majors in RBIs last year) and Max Muncy (50-1; rehab has gone well, and DH raises his at-bat floor).

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Source: Yahoo Sports


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