Wednesday, October 5 2022
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What came first: the chicken or the egg? I’ve always believed it had to be an egg laid by another bird that wasn’t quite a chicken yet, but we’ll never truly know. However, we might be able to answer another one of life’s great mysteries soon.

What matters more: the quarterback or the receiver? We saw Green Bay trade Davante Adams to Las Vegas earlier this month, leaving Aaron Rodgers with a significant void in his life, and that trade had an unforeseen ripple effect today. You see, the Raiders trading for Adams and giving him all that money shifted the market for receivers, and suddenly the Raiders’ division rival could no longer afford to keep one of their own.

And that’s why the Kansas City Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins for a boatload of draft picks today. So now Aaron Rodgers has lost Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes loses Tyreek Hill. This has been one of the wildest NFL offseasons I can remember, and we’re still over a month away from the draft.

OK, let’s make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

USATSI

🏀 Warriors at Heat, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

Latest Odds: Miami Heat -9.5

  • Key Trend: The Heat are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings
  • The Pick: Heat -7 (-110)

The Warriors are a broken team right now. Following last night’s 94-90 loss to the lowly Orlando Magic, Draymond Green told reporters, “We’re playing soft. We’re playing stupid. We’re just not playing good basketball. And we’re getting punked. It’s hard to win a game getting punked.”

Friends, I believe the Warriors are about to get punked again tonight. Miami doesn’t strike me as the kind of team that will take it easy on anybody.

While Golden State misses Stephen Curry, the real downfall has come on the defensive end. The Warriors still rank third in defensive rating, but in 21 games since the start of February, their rating has spiked to 114.0, which ranks 15th. It’s hard to beat teams when you can’t stop them, and the Warriors are having difficulty stopping everybody. Meanwhile, in that same span, Miami’s defensive rating of 106.9 ranks second, which helps the Heat overcome an offense that can be inefficient.

Still, Miami has rarely been at full strength this season but enters tonight’s game as close to it as can be expected at this time of year.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has a strong lean toward one side of the spread as well.


💰 The Picks

usatsi

🏀 NBA

Hawks at Pistons, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

Latest Odds: Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Pick: Hawks -4.5 (-110) — I’m worried about a possible letdown from the Hawks tonight coming off last night’s win in Madison Square Garden. They’ve been inconsistent all season long already, and the trip from MSG to Detroit can be pretty jarring for the ol’ adrenal glands. Still, this is a matchup that Atlanta should exploit.

The Hawks are second in the NBA in offensive rating at 114.6 and have been even better this month at 117.4. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league all year, which isn’t much of a surprise considering how young they are.

Now, betting against the Pistons has proven to be a bad idea for most of this season. This season, Detroit is 17-12-1 ATS as a home dog, but it’s failed to cover in each of its last two home games — and Atlanta has plenty to play for as it jockeys for playoff positioning. It’s too much to ask the Hawks to get out of the play-in tournament, but they can move up to eighth and earn a home game if they finish strongly enough.

Key Trend: The Hawks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record.

Sixers at Lakers, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 Assists (+115) — 
I’ve included this play in the newsletter a couple of times already, and it’s won both times. Why not go for a third? Frankly, I’m not sure why books keep offering odds this high on Maxey getting to four assists, considering how often Maxey gets to at least four assists.

Tonight against a Lakers team that has been horrific defensively this month (a defensive rating of 119.9 that ranks 27th and has allowed opponents to hit 50.3% of their shots), he’ll have plenty more chances to do so.

Key Trend: Maxey is averaging 3.5 assists per game over the last six games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: If you’d rather make a more traditional play on tonight’s Lakers/Sixers game, the Projection Model has a strong lean on one side of the total.


🏀 NCAA Tournament Future

The Pick: Providence to win the Midwest Region (+650) — That’s it, I’m done waiting for reality to catch up to Providence. If this program is going to continue living up to its name, I’m going to try to cash in on it. Seriously, I do not expect the Friars to beat Kansas, but it’s not entirely out of the question. They have enough size to give the Jayhawks problems, and if Jared Bynum or Noah Horchler get hot from three, they can pull off the upset. Then it’ll be either Miami or Iowa State in the regional final, both of whom the Friars would be favored against.

Source: CBSSports.com

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