State Farm Arena hosts a marquee tilt on Friday evening in Atlanta. The Atlanta Hawks welcome the Golden State Warriors to town for a cross-conference matchup. The Hawks are 36-37 this season and 23-14 in home games. The Warriors are 48-25 overall and 19-16 on the road. Stephen Curry (foot) is out for Golden State, with Andre Iguodala (back) listed as questionable. John Collins (foot/finger) is out for Atlanta.
Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. Caesars Sportsbook lists Atlanta as a 2.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221 in the latest Warriors vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Warriors picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters Week 22 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 79-49 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
- Warriors vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -2.5
- Warriors vs. Hawks over-under: 221 points
- Warriors vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -135, Warriors +115
- GSW: The Warriors are 16-11-1 against the spread in non-conference games
- ATL: The Hawks are 10-17 against the spread in non-conference games
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors have excellent traits on both sides of the floor. Golden State scores more than 1.12 points per possession on offense, leading the NBA by generating an assist on 66.8 percent of field goals. The Warriors are in the top five of the NBA in assists per game (27.1) and 2-point accuracy (55.9 percent), and Golden State is in the top eight in both 3-point accuracy (36.2 percent) and fast-break points (14.2 per game).
Atlanta’s defense is porous, allowing almost 1.14 points per possession, and the Warriors are stout on defense. Golden State is in the top three of the NBA in points allowed per possession (1.06), and the Warriors are in the top six of the league in field-goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, assists allowed, turnovers created, steals, defensive rebound rate and points allowed in the paint. Golden State also holds opponents to only 12.6 second-chance points per game, and the Warriors have the fourth-best differential in the NBA this season.
Why the Hawks can cover
Atlanta should benefit from the absence of Curry, as the Warriors are scoring only 104.4 points per 100 possessions with Curry off the floor this season. Golden State is 3-6 when Curry is absent, and the Warriors rank No. 25 or worse in the NBA in free-throw creation and turnover rate on offense. The Hawks are highly effective on the offensive side, scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions to rank No. 3 in the league. Atlanta commits the fewest turnovers in the NBA, giving the ball away on only 12.1 percent of possessions, and the Hawks generate more than two assists per turnover.
Atlanta is also shooting 37.0 percent from 3-point range and 81.4 percent from the free-throw line, both of which rank in the top five of the NBA, and the Hawks are making 46.7 percent of field goal attempts. Atlanta is also elite in free-throw prevention on defense, yielding 19.7 attempts per game, and the Hawks are in the top 10 of the league in defensive rebound rate and second-chance points allowed per game.
How to make Hawks vs. Warriors picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting 229 combined points. It’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.