Warriors vs. Kings prediction, odds, line, time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 bets by model on 71-37 run
The Golden State Warriors will try to claw their way back into the series when they take on the Sacramento Kings in Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round series on Thursday. The Kings (48-34), the third seed in the West, took a 2-0 series lead with a 114-106 win on Monday. The Warriors (44-38), the sixth seed in the conference and the defending NBA champions, won three of the four regular-season matchups, including both games played in San Francisco. The Warriors will be without forward Draymond Green, who was suspended for Game 3 by the NBA for stomping on Domantas Sabonis during the fourth quarter of Game 2. Sabonis (sternum) is listed as questionable. Golden State leads the all-time regular-season series 215-193, but Sacramento has won the only two playoff matchups.
Tipoff from Chase Center is set for 10 p.m. ET. Golden State is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Warriors vs. Kings odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 239. Before making any Kings vs. Warriors picks, be sure to check out the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-37 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $3,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Kings vs. Warriors and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Warriors vs. Kings:
- Warriors vs. Kings spread: Warriors -5.5
- Warriors vs. Kings over/under: 239 points
- Warriors vs. Kings money line: Kings +215, Warriors -267
- SAC: The Kings are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record
- GS: The Warriors are 39-16-1 ATS in their last 56 home games
- Warriors vs. Kings picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Warriors can cover
Point guard Stephen Curry leads Golden State, and is averaging 29 points, 4.5 rebounds and four assists through the first two games of the series. Those numbers are similar to his season average of 29.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 6.3 assists. Curry now has scored 20 or more points in 107 postseason games, 30 or more in 52, and 40 or more in seven. In four regular season games against the Kings this season, Curry averaged 33 points, 6.5 rebounds, five assists and one steal.
Also expected to provide Golden State with some offense is shooting guard Klay Thompson. He scored 21 points in both Game 1 and 2, and has scored 20 or more points in six consecutive games, including a high of 31 in a 130-115 win over San Antonio on March 31. Thompson averaged 21.9 points in 69 regular-season games. In four regular-season games against the Kings this year, Thompson averaged 17.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 blocks in 33 minutes of action. See which team to pick here.
Why the Kings can cover
Despite that, Golden State isn’t a lock to cover the Kings vs. Warriors spread. That’s because Sacramento point guard De’Aaron Fox has been on fire. Fox opened the series with a 38-point, five-assist and three-steal performance in Game 1, and followed that up with a near double-double. He scored 24 points, dished out nine assists, grabbed five rebounds and made four steals in Game 2. Fox led Sacramento in scoring during the regular season as well, averaging 25 points, 6.1 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 73 games, all starts.
With Sabonis doubtful due to a chest injury suffered when Green stepped on him in Game 2, small forward Harrison Barnes will look to pick up some of the scoring slack. Barnes is averaging 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, three steals and 1.5 assists in the series so far. He scored 17 points in the season finale at Denver on April 9. Barnes has played well over the last 10 games, averaging 15 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists. See which team to pick here.
How to make Kings vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the point total. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Kings vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Kings spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 71-37 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.