Friday night brings a showcase in NBA circles, and one of the final games of the night pits the Golden State Warriors against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Warriors and Pelicans square off in the national spotlight, with the teams facing very different starts to the campaign. Golden State is 6-1 this season, including a 3-1 mark at home, while New Orleans is just 1-8 to begin the campaign. Brandon Ingram (hip) is questionable for New Orleans, with Klay Thompson (Achilles) and James Wiseman (knee) remaining sidelined for Golden State. Draymond Green (knee) is day-to-day for the Warriors.
Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 9.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 215 in the latest Warriors vs. Pelicans odds. Before making any Pelicans vs. Warriors picks or NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model finished up almost $600 on its top-rated picks last season and enters Week 3 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 106-71 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Pelicans and just locked in its coveted picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Pelicans vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Pelicans spread: Warriors -9.5
- Warriors vs. Pelicans over-under: 215 points
- Warriors vs. Pelicans money line: Warriors -475, Pelicans +360
- NOP: The Pelicans are 4-5 against the spread this season
- GSW: The Warriors are 4-3 against the spread in 2021-22
Why the Pelicans can cover
New Orleans is missing Zion Williamson (foot), making life a bit more difficult for the team to score efficiently. However, the Pelicans have received high-end contributions from both Jonas Valanciunas and Devonte’ Graham to bridge the gap. Valanciunas is putting up 19.2 points and 14.1 rebounds per game, with Graham adding 17.0 points, 5.4 assists and high-end shooting prowess. The Pelicans are also one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA on either side of the floor.
New Orleans is grabbing 30.4 percent of available offensive rebounds and 76.7 percent of available defensive rebounds. The Pelicans are also making 81.3 percent of their free throws, with a defense that is walling off and allowing only 11.3 second-chance points per game. Golden State is playing quite well, but the Warriors are a bottom-tier team in offensive rebounding that ranks below the league average in ball security and free-throw creation on the offensive side.
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors are playing at an elite level to begin the season, and the team’s defense has led the way. Golden State leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, with opponents scoring only 97.1 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors are a top-five team in shooting efficiency allowed, free-throw rate allowed, defensive rebound rate and second-chance points allowed, with top-tier marks in points allowed in the paint and steals.
Making things more favorable, the Pelicans are currently averaging only 1.03 points per possession on offense, scuffling to a 52.4 percent true shooting mark and a 16.5 percent turnover rate. Golden State’s offense is No. 1 in the NBA in assists and assist percentage, with a top-five mark in shooting efficiency and the No. 4 ranking in 3-point marksmanship, burying 38.1 percent of long-range attempts. The Pelicans are also a bottom-three team in keeping the opposition off the free-throw line, and there is a path to offensive success for the Warriors.
How to make Pelicans vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.