Saturday, April 1 2023
NFL: OCT 30 Panthers at Falcons
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Hello, my name is Tom Fornelli, and I’m an adult man who is excited about uniforms. I don’t know why I look forward to the NBA releasing its City Edition uniforms every year, but I do. I never plan on buying one because basketball jerseys are the least sensible jerseys to wear in public (soccer shirts are the most sensible), but I’ve wanted to buy a number of them.

The NBA has done a great job with City Editions of the Chicago Bulls uniforms, and this year’s jersey is no different. Outside of the Bulls, I’d say my favorite is either the Dallas Mavericks jersery or the Boston Celtics (though it looks a little too similar to the Bucks standard uniform). After that I think I’d go with the Sacramento Kings, which is probably the first nice thing anybody has said about the Kings since Chris Webber and Vlade Divac were playing for them.

What are your favorites? Think about it, and then read these stories.

Now let’s try to win some money, shall we?

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Falcons at Panthers, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

Latest Odds: Carolina Panthers +2.5

  • Key Trend: The underdog has covered five straight in this series.
  • The Pick: Panthers +2.5 (-110)

It feels like it’s been a while since I took a straight spread or total play on a weeknight NFL game, but lo and behold, tonight offers us value on the spread. The Panthers shouldn’t be underdogs in this game! The Falcons beat the Panthers 37-34 in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but that game was insane, and if you look at the numbers, the Falcons might’ve won, but they didn’t play better than the Panthers did.

Carolina outgained the Falcons in the game in the air and on the ground and turned the ball over fewer times as well. The problem was that the Panthers missed a field goal and an extra point, four points which loomed pretty large in a game that required overtime. With the return game being played in Carolina, I like the Panthers’ odds of coming out on top.

The Panthers have allowed only 21.2 points per game at home this season compared to 30.5 on the road. Atlanta scores 26.2 points at home but only 21.5 on the road and allows 4.5 more points per game on the road than at home. We’re also catching a bit of a break, thanks to Carolina getting crushed by the Bengals last week. While NFL spreads are hard to crack, you can sometimes find a little more value when a team comes off a blowout loss, and the betting market overreacts. I believe tonight is just such an opportunity.

Finally, if you want to bet Marcus Mariota as a road favorite, you go right ahead. I’ll be over here standing alongside sanity and reason. The Falcons may be 6-3 ATS this season, but they started 6-0, and they’ve only been favored once. That was at home by four points against these Panthers. The Panthers covered.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s Emory Hunt is 19-5 in his last 24 ATS picks involving the Falcons and he has a play listed for tonight’s game.

💰 The Picks

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🏈 College Football

Georgia Southern at Louisiana, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN2

Latest Odds: Under 63

The Pick: Under 62.5 (-110) — This bet is largely game script-dependent. If Georgia Southern jumps out to an early lead, it could be tough to stay under this total, and I’d like the play a lot more if it were still at 63.5, where I got it this morning. I do still like it at 62.5, just not as much. Georgia Southern’s offense has been one of the better units in the Sun Belt this season, but the Louisiana defense has been one of the conference’s best too.

In Sun Belt play, Louisiana’s defense has a success rate of 63.4% and has allowed only 1.55 points per drive. It’s been particularly good stopping the pass, which is where Georgia Southern is at its best. The Ragin’ Cajuns’ defense limits explosive plays in the passing game, which could fluster the Eagles‘ offense tonight. Should the Cajuns win this game as I expect them to, we should finish well below this number.


Mavericks at Wizards, 7 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

Latest Odds: Dallas Mavericks -5.5

The Pick: Mavs -3.5 (-110) — We have one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA in Dallas (114.3, 8th), going against one of the least efficient defenses in the NBA in Washington (112.8, 22nd). That alone makes the Mavs an attractive option tonight. The Wizards pair that poor defense with a worse offense (108.5, 25th), while the Mavs’ defensive efficiency ranks ninth in the league (109.5).

So, what could go wrong? The game is in Washington, and the Mavs haven’t been quite as good on the road as they’ve been at home, but the numbers are heavily skewed by Dallas’ awful performance against Orlando earlier this week. Dallas shot only 37.6% from the floor and 26.2% from three while missing seven free throws in a 94-87 loss. Their defense was still solid; the offense just had an off night. I don’t think it’ll happen again tonight.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: There’s another college game tonight. Find out what the Projection Model has to say about the game between Memphis and Tulsa.



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