Tuesday, May 24 2022
Gerrit Cole (backwards) and Aaron Judge low five road uniforms

Gerrit Cole (backwards) and Aaron Judge low five road uniforms

The Yankees still have a lot of work to do this offseason, but the lockout projected ZiPS standings for the 2022 season have them winning the AL East.

The projections, which tend to skew conservative, have the Yanks going 90-72 — 1.0 game ahead of the 89-73 Toronto Blue Jays and 2.0 games ahead of the 88-74 Tampa Bay Rays.

The Houston Astros, projected to go 91-71 and win the AL West, are the only team in the AL projected to win more than 90 games.

Writes Szymborski about the Yanks:

The Yankees have more variance in their projection than last year. ZiPS still likes their front-end talent, but the wheels come off this cart in the simulations where injuries hit.

Elsewhere in the AL, the Chicago White Sox are projected to finish 88-74 and win the AL Central (with no other team in the division finishing .500 or better). As far as the wild card spots go, the Blue Jays and Rays are projected to get the first and second spots, respectively.

It should be noted that the playoffs are expected to expand as part of the new CBA, which would mean going from 10 playoff teams to 12 or 14.

As far as the rest of the AL East beyond the Yanks, Jays, and Rays, the projections have the Boston Red Sox going 83-79 and the Baltimore Orioles finishing 64-98.

The projections, from Dan Szymborski, will be updated when the lockout ends and player moves are made. After going through the methodology and algorithms, and taking into account depth charts, playing time projections, injury risks, and other factors, here’s how the initial projections were done:

The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds.

Source: Yahoo Sports

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