Monday, March 4 2024

We’re back in the Big 12 after getting the Iowa State win over Houston last night.

In a highly anticipated Big 12 matchup, the #9 Oklahoma Sooners (13-1, 1-0 Big 12) are set to face the TCU Horned Frogs (11-3, 0-1 Big 12) on Wednesday. In their league opener, Oklahoma secured a home victory against Iowa State, winning 71-63 and covering the 2.5-point spread as favorites. On the other side, TCU faced the challenging task of taking on #3 Kansas in their first conference game, putting up a strong fight but ultimately falling short with an 83-81 loss as 8.5-point underdogs.

#9 Oklahoma (13-1) @ TCU (11-3) | ESPN2 | 9:00 pm |

Porter Moser has led the Oklahoma Sooners to surprising success in his third year in Norman, establishing them as one of the standout teams in the country. Moser strategically navigated the transfer portal, assembling a roster that now competes with the top-level talent in the Big 12 conference. Addressing concerns from the previous year, Moser bolstered the team’s athleticism, no longer considering them the least athletic in the conference.

Key contributors have emerged to elevate the team’s performance. Javian McCollum provides the Sooners with a versatile guard who can create his own shot, attack the rim, and facilitate for teammates. In the paint, John Hugley IV has become a formidable presence, excelling in rebounding and shot-blocking.

In facing TCU, a team that thrives in transition, the Sooners will prioritize defensive transitions and aim to force the Horned Frogs into half-court sets. Defensively, Oklahoma has been remarkable, limiting opponents to an average of just 63.2 points per game. Their stringent defense extends to a 38.9% field goal percentage for opponents, showcasing their ability to disrupt scoring opportunities. Notably, their three-point defense has been effective, with opponents shooting a mere 27.8% from beyond the arc.

The odd thing about TCU is that they have 0 wins over KenPom’s Top 100 teams, but all of their losses have come to KenPom’s Top 35 teams. They are currently ranked 2nd in all of D1 in experience as they are led by Seniors Jameer Nelson and Emanuel Miller. TCU can turn teams over quickly as they come in ranked fifth nationally in turnover percentage.

So What’s The Play?

Just like last night, this is another spot play for us. This is OU’s first true road game. Their only other road game was against North Carolina, but it was played in Charlotte. A game OU lost 81-69 but was never really in. Tonight is going to be a serious test for them, and I like the experience of TCU, their ability to score in the paint as they rank 20th in 2-point scoring, and their ability to turn teams over. Oklahoma comes in ranked 228th nationally, so they’ve struggled to protect the ball. I think TCU speeds them up a bit and converts well in transition all night. Horned Frogs -4.

Source: Basketball Insider


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