Thursday, February 22 2024

Behind the Counter

Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk at Fanatics Sportsbook, touched on a few matchups in the NFL Week 2 odds market, including the Thursday night clash between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles.

“Although the line has dropped from -7.5 to -6, our customers are against the move and backing the Eagles in the Thursday night matchup,” Fargis said. 

That’s not a surprise, as public/recreational bettors were heavily on Philly in last week’s 25-20 win at New England. The Eagles covered as 3.5-point favorites. 

As for the 1.5-point drop from Eagles -7.5 to -6, other sportsbooks have reported sharp play on the Vikings.

Other quick hitters from Fargis:

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars: “Customers liked the Chiefs’ side, and we’ve nudged this one to -3.5.”
  • New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys: In Week 1, the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) for the rest of the season. Hence a big line move in Jets-Cowboys. “On Monday morning, the Cowboys were listed as a 3.5-point favorite over the Jets. After the Rodgers injury, we are looking at -8.5 now.”
  • Seahawks vs. Lions: Interestingly, a lot of customers are opting to lay -220 or so with Detroit on the moneyline, rather than bet Lions -4.5 (-110). “There are five times as many Lions moneyline bets as Seahawks moneyline bets so far.”
  • 49ers vs. Rams: “This is shaping up to be one of the most-lopsided games for the book, with 95% of the early money on the 49ers.” San Francisco is a 7.5-point favorite.

College Football Rocks on FOX

Though FOX Sports’ Big Noon Kickoff pregame show is in Boulder for Colorado State-Colorado, the actual noon ET game on FOX pits No. 7 Penn State vs. Illinois (FOX and the FOX Sports App).

The Nittany Lions opened -16.5 at BetMGM and are already down to -14.5 on the road. But that’s not indicative of action midweek.

“It’s all Penn State money so far. I would expect that to continue through Saturday,” BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said.

No. 11 Tennessee vs. Florida is another key Saturday matchup, with a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. Pro bettors are weighing in early on this SEC clash in Gainesville, Florida.

“So far, the sharp action has come in on the Gators, as we’ve seen the spread drop to under a touchdown from the opener of Tennessee -7.5,” Drucker said, noting the Vols are now -6.5. “However, I would anticipate us needing the Gators. It will be interesting to see the final numbers come kickoff.

Drucker provided insights on two more Saturday matchups:

LSU vs. Mississippi State: BetMGM opened visiting LSU -8.5 and has already touched -10 a couple times, with the line -9.5 (-115, bet $10 to win $18.70 total) late Wednesday night. “Interesting early sharp action on LSU that drove the number to -9.5. I think we will be cheering for the Bulldogs come Saturday.”

Minnesota vs. North Carolina: The host Tar Heels are up to -7.5 from a -6.5 opener. “An extreme clash of styles here, with Minnesota’s ground-and-pound vs. North Carolina’s air-it-out spread with QB Drake Maye. The public is on North Carolina so far, and I would expect that to continue.”

“This is arguably the greatest coaching job in the history of college football”



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Source: FOX Sports

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