Chiefs, Cowboys & Eagles hold top spots in Nick’s Week 10 NFL Tiers
Nick’s NFL Tiers entering Week 10.
This is a big week in the NFL. The Cowboys and the Packers are facing off in America’s Game of the Week on FOX, there’s an NFC South battle going down in Germany and the reigning Super Bowl champs are trying to bounce back.
We’ve got some exciting matchups to wager on, and four games, in particular, catch my eye. And you know my goal is always to win us all some cash.
So let’s dive into my best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season (odds via FOX Bet).
Seahawks vs Buccaneers in Munich (9:30 a.m. ET Sunday, NFL Network)
It’s a battle of division leaders in Germany! Just like the NFL envisioned when this game was added to the schedule.
I generally dislike wagering on games that are played overseas because of the travel elements, both teams playing “away” games and just all the other factors that are different from the usual routines.
However, one team is playing well and has a sustainable way to continue being successful … and the other team is hurting on one side of the ball.
The Buccaneers’ offense is broken. Their offensive line and running attack both stink. Tom Brady and his receivers are consistently out of sync. And their play calling is predictable, severely hurting any chance of sustained success over 60 minutes.
Now Tampa Bay gets to face a Seattle defense that keeps improving. They started the season slowly but entered their game on Sunday against the Cardinals ranked 11th in DVOA. Then that side of the football allowed just 14 points to Arizona in a 10-point win.
I don’t think Tampa will score often against the Seahawks defense, and that’s an issue because Seattle should be able to score easily on Tampa.
Yes, Tampa Bay’s defense often gets stops. But against the better offenses, they’ve faced this season, including K.C. and Baltimore, the Bucs have not stopped much.
The Chiefs scored 41, and the Ravens put up 27 against the Bucs defense. The Seahawks offense was seventh in efficiency before Sunday’s game, and all they did against Arizona was put 31 points, 421 yards while completing 67% on third downs.
The Seahawks offense is balanced, with Geno Smith at quarterback and rookie Kenneth Walker leading the rushing attack. If Tampa can slow down Walker, I have faith in Geno being able to attack the Buccaneers secondary.
I think Seattle will win this game outright.
PICK: Seawhawks (+110 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright
Nick’s NFL Tiers entering Week 10.
Saints at Steelers (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
Mike Tomlin is a home underdog? Sign me up.
After week five of any season, Tomlin is 14-2-1 against the spread as a home dog. Now they are off a bye, getting healthy and play a Saints team that has no business being a favorite over anyone.
Alvin Kamara being healthy is a boon to the Saints offense, currently ranked 18th in DVOA. Outside of him, though, the cupboard is bare. Quarterback Andy Dalton has just been average, and Michael Thomas is out for the remainder of the season.
Also, it’s worth noting that since 2018 Andy Dalton has been a favorite just five times on the road. The opposing quarterbacks were Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, Brandon Allen, Kyle Allen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Dalton only covered in one of those games.
The Steelers defense is what keeps them in ball games, and with a healthy roster after the bye, I have to think the Steelers defense plays well.
I’ll take Pittsburgh to cover
PICK: Steelers (+1.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points (or win outright)
Colts at Raiders (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
On Monday morning, the Raiders quickly jumped out to a 6-point favorite against the Colts. Shortly after Monday morning, the Indianapolis Colts fired head coach Frank Reich and installed former Colts center and ESPN personality Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach.
Jeff Saturday’s first order of business was finding an offensive play caller, as the Colts did not have an obvious option on the coaching staff. Saturday chose Parks Frazier, a 30-year-old assistant quarterbacks coach.
Despite all this chaos at the top of the Colts coaching staff, the line for this game hasn’t moved at all.
The Raiders are still six-point favorites, and I’m not sure how to account for this lack of movement. The Raiders are the clear side here.
Yes, the Raiders stink and are massively underachieving this season… but the Colts have a first-time head coach, a first-time play caller, a backup quarterback, a poor offensive line and a weak pass defense… and they are on the road. This is a no-brainer for me, even with my lack of trust in the Raiders.
Raiders to cover.
PICK: Raiders (-5.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 5.5 points
Craig Carton brings out his crystal ball and makes his big NFL predictions.
Cardinals at Rams (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App)
Here’s where the Rams stand right now. They are averaging 16.4 points per game, and they haven’t even reached that number in their last two outings.
No surprise here, but the Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has not played well, and now he’s in concussion protocol. The Rams offensive line is one of the worst in the NFL. And outside Cooper Kupp, they lack a single impact player at running back, tight end or wide receiver.
On the other side are the Cardinals, a team you should never trust.
The Cardinals are 17th in points per drive on offense, while the Rams defense is 12th in points per drive. The Cardinals offensive line is battling through some injuries as well, and I think the Rams defensive line should take advantage.
Also, Kyler Murray popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. When Murray starts getting beat up, the offense struggles because he doesn’t move as well.
I will gladly take the Under in this game.
PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet
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