Wednesday, February 8 2023

Houston and Dallas are only about 240 miles apart, but the Texans and Cowboys will meet Sunday for only the sixth time since the Texans joined the NFL in 2002.

The Cowboys lead the all-time series 3-2 though the Texans won the most recent meeting 19-16 in overtime in 2018. The two most recent meetings went to OT, with a 20-17 Cowboys win in 2014).

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Texans-Cowboys game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet):

Latest projections give Cowboys 29 percent chance of winning Super Bowl

Dallas has won three in a row and taken the top spot in the Football Power Index postseason projections.

RELATED: Cowboys climb Bucky Brooks’ Top 10

Texans at Cowboys (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

Point spread: Cowboys -16.5 (Cowboys favored to win by more than 16.5 points, otherwise Texans cover)
Moneyline: Cowboys -1250 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $10.80 total); Texans +750 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 44.5 points scored by both teams combined

Houston Texans

HOU

Dallas Cowboys

DAL

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

There are two types of bad football teams in the NFL. 

We have the fun bad teams, who always play close games but just can’t get over the top with wins — like the Chicago Bears. Yeah, they score a ton of points and have an electric quarterback, but they just can’t win football games. 

On the flip side, there are the bad football teams that flat-out stink and are not fun to watch — like the one-win Texans. 

The Texans are the 31st-scoring team in the NFL (shout out to the Broncos in last place) and have switched back to Davis Mills to lead their offense after his benching. Their defense ranks 32nd in efficiency. Not much else to say other than this team is putrid.

Additionally, the Texans have only covered in two of their last nine games, even with them being big underdogs. 

And then you have teams like the Dallas Cowboys, who are improving each week. They just beat the Colts 54-19, and Dak Prescott’s efficiency numbers are rising. Along with this improved passing game, running back Tony Pollard is proving that he’s a number one running back. In the last six games, he’s averaging 93 yards per game, with nearly six yards a carry. 

It’s never wise to bet on teams laying 16.5-point spreads, so I’d rather focus on a prop bet. 

With the Cowboys winning big in the second half of this game, I expect Pollard to get a bulk of carries. The Texans allow the most rushing yards in the NFL, and Pollard will hit the over here. 

PICK: Pollard Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at FOX Bet)

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