Friday, December 2 2022

After Week 1 provided us with tons of surprises on the gambling front, we’re on to Week 2 of the NFL season. 

If you checked out last week’s trends post, there were a lot of winners you could have cashed in on! Teams that were underdogs of 5.5 to seven points went a whopping 6-2 against the spread (ATS), the under in the over/under hit in 11 of 16 games, the Buffalo Bills covered and won, and the trio of coaches we mentioned all covered- Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll and Andy Reid. Tom Brady and Geno Smith also covered, as we predicted.

FOX Sports Research is diving into Week 2 trends to give you some more winners this weekend. We dissected overall patterns and more coach- and player-specific trends. 

Here’s a look at the big trends that stood out.

1. Big underdogs cover in Week 2

Since 1966, underdogs of eight to 10 points cover at a 53.8% clip, going 43-37-3 ATS. In a more recent time frame, teams given eight to 10 points in Week 2 since 2007 are 10-7 ATS (58.8%). There are five teams that fit this bill entering Sunday:

Seattle Seahawks (+9.5 vs San Francisco 49ers)

Atlanta Falcons (+10.5 vs Los Angeles Rams)

Houston Texans (+10 vs Denver Broncos)

Tennessee Titans (+10 vs Bills)

Chicago Bears (+10 vs Green Bay Packers

2. Home underdogs cover in Week 2

Since 2010, home underdogs are 39-22-1 ATS (63.9%) in Week 2, with the over hitting in 36 of those games (58.1%). Going back even further, since the 1966 season, home underdogs in Week 2 are 143-126-7 ATS, sporting a 53.2% cover rate. There are four teams that are in this situation this weekend:

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4 vs Indianapolis Colts)

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2 vs New England Patriots)

Dallas Cowboys (+7.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals)

New Orleans Saints (+2.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

It should also be noted that the Saints have been dominant against the Buccaneers in recent matchups. Since 2018, New Orleans is 7-1 (87.5%) ATS and straight up (SU) against Tampa Bay in the regular season, with the over hitting in five of those games (62.5%). The Cowboys also went from slight favorites to big underdogs after Dak Prescott’s injury. Check out FOX Sports Betting Analyst Patrick Everson’s take on the situation.

3. The under hits in Week 2

The under has historically hit in Week 2. Since 1986, the under has hit in 580 of 1098 games with 30 pushes in that span (54.3%). If you go back to 2000, the percentage drops to 51.2% but jumps back up to 52.3% when looking at Week 2 games since 2015. Reminder: The under hit in 11 of 16 games last week.

4. Aaron Rodgers covers as a double-digit favorite and owns the Bears

Chicago is fresh off a huge win against the 49ers – winning outright as 6.5-point underdogs at home. As tempting as it might be to jump on the 10 points they’re getting against thePackers, check out this nugget: Aaron Rodgers is 20-7 ATS and 22-5 SU as a starter against the Bears in the regular season, sporting a whopping cover rate of 74.1%. He’s also 13-8 ATS (61.9%) as a 10-13 point favorite. Furthermore, this game is at Lambeau Field where A-Rod is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) and 12-2 SU (85.7%) against the Bears during the regular season. Green Bay is a 10-point favorite against Chicago. 

5. Mike Tomlin covers (again)

We said it last week and we’ll say it again: Mike Tomlin covers as an underdog. Last week, he was a road underdog; this week, he’s one at home. For his career, he’s 12-4-1 ATS (75%) as a home underdog and 11-6 SU (64.7%) in the regular season. Part of the reason Las Vegas has the Steelers as underdogs against the Patriots is T.J. Watt’s pectoral injury. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog against the Patriots. It should be mentioned that Tomlin is 3-6-1 ATS (33.3%) and 3-7 SU (30%) against the Patriots, but he also faced a fella named Tom Brady in nine of those 10 matchups.

6. John Harbaugh owns the Dolphins

Since John Harbaugh’s first season with the Baltimore Ravens in 2008, Harbaugh is 8-1 ATS and 7-2 SU against the Miami Dolphins. That’s a cover rate of 88.9% – a ridiculous percentage. The Ravens did lose to the Dolphins last season 22-10, but the only other loss came in 2015. Harbaugh is also 13-10-1 ATS (56.5%) and 16-8 SU (66.7%) as a three -to five-point favorite at home in the regular season. Baltimore is listed as a 3.5-point favorite. 

7. Kliff Kingsbury covers as a road underdog

Since becoming coach of the Arizona Cardinals in 2019, Kliff Kingsbury has been prolific as a road underdog. In that span he’s gone 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) and 11-7 SU (61.1%) in those situations. Something of note is that the under has hit in 11 of those games (61.1%). It should also be mentioned that Kingsbury went a perfect 6-0 ATS and SU as a road underdog last season. Arizona is a 5.5-point underdog at Las Vegas. 

8. Sean McDermott thrives as a double-digit favorite

While we said big underdogs cover in Week 2, Sean McDermott and the Bills are the exception. Since his first season in Buffalo in 2017, McDermott is 5-2-2 ATS (71.4%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) as a double-digit favorite in the regular season. Josh Allen has been the starting quarterback in all nine of those matchups, and the Bills are 10-point favorites against Tennessee on Sunday.

9. Dan Campbell is a home favorite

This is more of a betting nugget than a trend, but due to its historical significance we wanted to include it. For the first time since Dan Campbell took over as head coach before the 2021 season, the Detroit Lions are home favorites! The last time this happened was in Week 10 of the 2020 season when Matt Patricia was at the helm, Matthew Stafford was the signal-caller and the Lions were 2.5-point favorites against Washington. For perspective, they were only home favorites twice that season, going 1-1 ATS and SU in those matchups. Remember, the Lions were one of three teams to cover in 11 or more regular season games last season – and they’re also 1-0 ATS in 2022. 

10. Vikings cover historically vs. the Eagles        

While the sample size is a bit small, the Minnesota Vikings are 4-1 ATS and SU (80%) against the Philadelphia Eagles in regular-season games since 2010. The lone loss came in Week 7 in 2016. Furthermore, the Vikings are 8-5 ATS and SU (61.5%) against NFC East opponents since 2015 – with the over hitting in seven of those 13 games (53.8%).

So are you ready to place some NFL bets? Head over to FOX Bet now for all your wagers!

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today! 

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Source: FOX Sports


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