Friday, March 24 2023

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-4) are heading to Louisiana to take on the New Orleans Saints  (2-5) in a Week 8 matchup. 

The Raiders are coming off a 38-20 defeat of the Houston Texans, while the Saints suffered a 34-42 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Here’s everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Sunday’s matchup between the Raiders and Saints — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting expert (with all NFL odds via FOX Bet).

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RELATED: Week 8 lines, odds

Raiders at Saints (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Point spread: Raiders -1.5 (Raiders favored to win by more than 1.5 points, otherwise Saints cover)
Moneyline: Raiders -133 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $17.52 total); Saints +105 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $20.50 total)
Total scoring over/under: 47.5 points scored by both teams combined

Las Vegas Raiders


New Orleans Saints


Pick via FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

One of the season’s most under-discussed and underrated stories is the efficiency of this Raiders offense.  

The only team in the NFL converting early downs into first downs at a higher rate than the Raiders is the Chiefs

On the year, the Raiders are converting 32% of their early-down plays into a new set of downs, second-best in the NFL. 

Look at how many points teams scored vs. the Broncos

Now the Raiders get to take on the Saints defense, and there may not be a more disappointing defense year-over-year.   

In 2021, the Saints had the No. 1 defense on early downs, allowing a first down to be gained just 21% of the time.   

This year they are struggling massively, and it starts up front. 

They are recording the lowest pressure rate of any defense on early downs in the first three quarters. 

Just 17% on the year. 

The other part of their problem?   

They allow a ton of rushing efficiency because their line is getting moved off the ball too easily. 

On the season, they rank 31st in opponent yards before contact per rush, allowing over two yards before contact. Only the Giants run defense is worse.   

Over the last three weeks, the Saints are allowing the second-most EPA/rush and the secondmost yards before contact to opposing running backs.

That’s a scary proposition when facing Josh Jacobs

Because Jacobs is leading the Raiders offense to the best ranking in the NFL in EPA/carry, and they rank seventh in yards before contact per rush. And over the last three weeks, the Raiders rank first in EPA/carry and second in yards before contact per rush. 

With the Raiders likely to be able to run efficiently, it will set up Derek Carr in the passing game. And we know Carr is sensitive to pressure, so the fact that the Saints rank dead last in pressure rate is huge for the upside of the Raiders passing attack. 

On the other side of the ball, the Saints offense should be looking forward to this matchup vs. the Raiders defense. 

The Raiders defense will be the easiest faced by the Saints since Week 1. 

The Raiders are average vs. the run but have not played a single above-average rushing offense. 

The Saints rank second in rushing efficiency despite not having Alvin Kamara for two of the first four games this season. He returned in Week 5, and since then, he’s totaled 251 yards in three games, and the Saints offense is averaging 33 points per game. 

Not only is he a difference maker on the ground, but he’s added 172 yards through the air.   

And the Raiders rank as the 25th-best pass defense against RB targets. 

They also rank 32nd in red zone efficiency. They not only allow red zone touchdowns at the highest rate per red zone drive, but they also allow 39% of drives to reach the red zone, which is 30th in the NFL. And when opponents are in the red zone, the Raiders rank in the bottom 10 in both EPA/play and success rate.   

Many trips and terrible red zone defense is a huge problem vs. any opponent, particularly the Saints. 

That’s because the Saints are one of the NFL’s best red-zone offenses. They simply have a ton of plays at their disposal. Mainly because of their personnel. They have the Swiss army knife of Taysom Hill. They have Alvin Kamara, who can run and catch the ball. And they have a myriad of TEs and receivers that you may not overly respect but can be schemed open. And that’s why the Saints rank third in EPA per play inside the red zone and sixth in red zone TD rate. 

PICK: Over 49.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Click here for the latest NFL odds and everything you need in the sports betting world on and the FOX Sports App.

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Source: FOX Sports


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