Tuesday, December 7 2021

Welcome back to our weekly EPL betting preview. The seventh round of fixtures includes a few games between evenly matched teams and ends with a game has implications at the top of the standings.

We’re not on a heater right now — fading these picks may be a profitable endeavor. All odds are via BetMGM and all games are on Saturday unless noted.

Manchester United vs. Everton

  • Man United (-200)

  • Everton (+575)

  • Tie (+325)

United escaped with a Champions League win against Villarreal on Friday thanks to a late goal from — who else? — Cristiano Ronaldo. Everton will likely try to bunker and avoid United hitting it on the counter. I’m hesitant to pick United to win again, but I think that’s the smart bet here.

Burnley vs. Norwich City

  • Burnley (-115)

  • Norwich City (+350)

  • Tie (+250)

Burnley thought it got its first win of the year against Leicester last weekend but a late Chris Wood goal was ruled offside. Norwich hasn’t won so far this season either — will one of them get their first win? We like Burnley — they’ve shown enough flashes so far this season to think a win is on the horizon.

Chelsea vs. Southampton

  • Chelsea (-250)

  • Southampton (+700)

  • Tie (+375)

Chelsea lost to Juventus on the road on Wednesday and is dealing with some injury issues. N’Golo Kante will likely be out after testing positive for COVID-19. This is also a Southampton team that went on the road two weeks ago to Man City and got a point. Southampton is yet another team that doesn’t have a win so far this season, but Chelsea should have enough to do what Man City couldn’t do.

Leeds vs. Watford

  • Leeds (-130)

  • Watford (+375)

  • Tie (+260)

Leeds has three ties and three losses in six matches while Watford has gotten two wins. Yet Leeds is the favorite here. This feels like it should be closer than the odds say it is. Either the tie or Leeds should be the pick here in case oddsmakers know something I don’t.

Wolves vs. Newcastle

  • Wolves (-150)

  • Newcastle (+375)

  • Tie (+320)

Raul Jimenez got his first goal since his nasty head injury a season ago in Wolves’ win over Southampton. A Wolves team with Jimenez as a goal threat is a solid mid-table side. Yet I can’t escape the thought that Newcastle could sneak away from this game with a point or maybe even all three.

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Arsenal

  • Brighton & Hove (+185)

  • Arsenal (+150)

  • Tie (+230)

Brighton is among five teams tied for second with 13 points while Arsenal has won three straight after losing three straight to start the season. This should be the game of the day on Saturday and none of the possible results are surprising — that’s why the odds are so low across the board. I’ll go with Brighton for the win.

Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City (Sunday)

  • Palace (+220)

  • Leicester (+130)

  • Tie (+230)

Palace has been a lot better than expected so far this season given the mass departures during the offseason. Leicester has been a disappointment; the Foxes have just seven points through six games. I’ll go with the tie.

Tottenham vs. Aston Villa (Sunday)

  • Tottenham (+115)

  • Aston Villa (+240)

  • Tie (+240)

Tottenham is pulling a reverse Arsenal while Villa is fresh off a win at Manchester United a week ago. Aston Villa should be the pick here given how abysmal Tottenham’s current form is.

West Ham vs. Brentford (Sunday)

  • West Ham (-125)

  • Brentford (+375)

  • Tie (+250)

West Ham could get as high as second in the table with the win. Brentford, meanwhile, has lost just once so far this season. That was a 1-0 defeat to Brighton. This could be a game ripe for another tie bet.

Liverpool vs. Manchester City (Sunday)

  • Liverpool (+180)

  • Man City (+140)

  • Tie (+260)

The biggest game of the weekend is the final one. Liverpool had the benefit of cruising in the Champions League this week while Man City lost to PSG. The tie is the tempting play here. If it ends 0-0, there will once again be debate about Man City not acquiring Harry Kane in the offseason.

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